Power Back

The signing of LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year $2.8 million contract represents an important decision for the Eagles franchise.  Make no mistakes.  This is one tough, talented running back.  He has the agility to leap defenders running through the hole, and drive back linebackers on the other side of the pile, gaining the difficult yards like few others are capable of doing.

Eagles fans who’ve watched with envy players like Mike Alstott and Jeremy Shockey who employ throwback smashmouth style of offensive football are about to have their day.

It wouldn’t be Philadelphia, however, if there weren’t stipulations and several reasons to contemplate the move by the Eagles front office.

Given that LeGarrette Blount is here for just one season, what type of 2017 should you hope to see?

If Blount rushes for 1,300 yards and 12TD, the likelihood that he will be on the 2018 roster at an affordable rate is low.

If Blount rushes for 650 yards and 9 TD, the likelihood that you as a fan will have been disappointed in the 2017 performance is high.

From Blount’s perspective, joining another team that has the capability to move the chains and create opportunities to score is a wise decision.

Are the short-term rapid-fire acquisitions of Alshon Jeffery and LeGarrette Blount genius, madness, both, or neither?

My vote is that there is at least some genius involved in these decisions.  From a business perspective, Blount at $2.8 million represents a low risk.

Because he is on a one-year deal and playing for a contract, we can apply a discounted percentage to the chances that Blount will step out of line as has reportedly happened at other times in his NFL career.

Eagles-Lions QB Showdown - Written by Mike Gilligan

In previewing the Eagles October 9 showdown with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, slowing QB Matthew Stafford, drafted in 2009 out of Georgia, will be critical.  

Going into this season, he has five (5) consecutive 4000-yard seasons, including one (1) 5000-yard season.

While it is notable that at present, legendary 31-year old WR Calvin Johnson is spending his time Dancing with the Stars rather than dancing in the end zone, the Lions pass game has not stalled.

So far in 2016 Stafford is averaging a career-best 8.2 yards per attempt, according to NFL.com along with an average of 328.3 yards per game.

Stafford’s career passing numbers cement him as one of the most successful QB draft picks in recent NFL history.  

In analyzing the last twenty (20) seasons worth of NFL QB draft selections, there have been two-hundred thirty (230) quarterbacks selected, meaning that the average NFL franchise has applied 7.2 selections toward bolstering its status at QB.  A round-by-round breakdown is shown below in Table 1.

Table 1 - NFL Quarterback Selections by Round

	Selections
ROUND1	50
ROUND2	22
ROUND3	24
ROUND4	25
ROUND5	30
ROUNDS 6-7	79
TOTALS	230

From that list of quarterbacks, there have been two-hundred eight (208) 3000-yard seasons, and forty-five (45) unique 3000-yard passers.  Twenty-Five (25) of those forty-five (45) have been first round picks.

Across Rounds 1-7, the average team has acquired 1.4 3000-yard passers per 20-year period via the draft (see Table 2).  Based on these numbers, the average team spent 5.1 draft picks in order to roster a 3000-yard passer via the draft.

Table 2 - NFL 3000 Yard Passers by Round

	3000 Yard Passers per NFL Team (based on 32 teams)*
ROUND1	0.78125
ROUND2	0.21875
ROUND3	0.09375
ROUND4	0.125
ROUND5	0
ROUND6-7	0.1875
TOTALS	1.40625

*The numbers are calculated using 32 teams across 20 year period.  However the NFL had 30 teams between 1996-2002 prior to expansion.

Of the first-round quarterback selections, the most 3000-yard seasons have been accomplished by the following quarterbacks, between 1996-2015:  Peyton Manning (16), Eli Manning (11), Philip Rivers (10), Ben Roethlisberger (10), Carson Palmer (8), Donovan McNabb (8), Matt Ryan (7), Jay Cutler (7), and Aaron Rodgers (7).

Additionally, there has been a concentration of success arising from first round picks #1-3, accounting for 37% of the drafted 3000-yard passing seasons between 1996-2015 as shown in Table 3 below.

Table 3 - 20-Year Success Rate of QB’s Drafted #1-3 Overall

1st Round	3000 Yard Seasons	Percentage of Drafted 3000 Yard Seasons
#1 Overall	58	27.88%
#2 Overall	10	4.81%
#3 Overall	9	4.33%
Totals 1-3	77	37.02%
TOTAL 3000 Yard Seasons Drafted	208

The tables and statistics show the difficulty of acquiring a QB who can throw for 3000 yards at any point in his career via draft selections.  

If QB sensation Carson Wentz is able to pass for 3000 yards this season, it will go a long ways towards the justification of the draft day investment the Eagles made when they traded with the Cleveland Browns to move up in the draft and select him at #2 overall.

 

Additionally, if Wentz is able to maintain his current pace of 256.3 yards per game, he would eclipse Donovan McNabb’s single-season franchise record in passing yards while also becoming the Eagles first 4000-yard passer in team history.

Unknown Fighter - Written by Mike Gilligan

When the Eagles made the announcement that they would be poaching Doug Pederson from Andy Reid’s staff in Kansas City, it really made me stop and contemplate.

My first reaction was one of respect for Jeffrey Lurie.  Regardless of the outcome, this move sends a clear message to the members of the Eagles organization.  That message is that Lurie is watching.  And whether you like or dislike Lurie - that he respects and wants to repay the efforts of the team players who contributed to his success, both in the spotlight, and behind the scenes.

Pederson, a career backup, essentially saw action for just one season in his NFL career.  For Philadelphia fans, this ranked as a season to forget.  His opportunity arrived at a time when the team was disheveled.  As the frontman for one of the worst teams in Eagles history, Pederson bore the brunt of criticism from the fans and the media.  Although the team was lacking in most areas - Pederson did not perform well on the football field - leading the team to a 2-7 record and a 53% completion rate in 1999.

Fast forward to 2016, and Jeffrey Lurie has brought back this player to lead his franchise.  

As a fan, it is difficult to dissociate Pederson with his time in the limelight in this city.  To be sure, skepticism is the overriding sentiment of the fan base and the media.

In any other city, Pederson would not have this hurdle to overcome.

And that is where this becomes so interesting.  

Does Jeffrey Lurie know something about Pederson that we don’t?

Was Pederson a huge hidden key to the success of Andy Reid’s tenure here?

Jeffrey Lurie has sent the entire franchise a message:  Jeffrey Lurie remembers and repays the contribution of the team players who have built his organization.

If his players correctly interpret the message being sent by the fact that Doug Pederson is standing before them an NFL head coach, then 2016 is going to be interesting.