Completing The Process

Thursday June 22, 2017 the Sixers established control over their own destiny, Moving to #1 and utilizing the selection that was acquired by exchanging 1st Round selections along with a future 1st Round selection with the Boston Celtics to select 6’-4” Washington Huskies point guard Markelle Fultz.  

At Washington, Fultz established himself as a player that can score, pass, rebound, and make three-point shots - sinking 41.3% from beyond the arc in his freshman season.

Later Thursday, General Manager Brian Colangelo again moved up to #25 to select International Center Anzejs Pasecniks, sending either one (1) 2020 first round selection, or two (2) 2021 second round selections - the specifications of the exchange being dependent upon the status of the Sixers process at that point in the future.

The acquisition of Fultz evokes memories of University of Michigan’s Fab-5, implemented at the pro level, when the University managed to bring together what is widely recognized as one of the greatest recruiting classes ever.

Locally known as The Process, the Sixers strategic acquisitions of Top NBA draft picks now should be close to producing the high quality product in terms of wins and losses, on the court that Sixers fans have been impatiently waiting for, and vocally expecting.

The Top-10 selections upon which the franchise’s near-term and long-term future will hinge are listed below in sequential order of season in which the selection was made.

2013 #6 - Nerlens Noel (C) University of Kentucky [exchanged for Dallas SG Justin Anderson]

2014 #3 - Joel Embiid (C) University of Kansas

2015 #3 - Jahlil Okafor (C) Duke University

2016 #1 - Ben Simmons (SF) Louisiana State University

2017 #1 - Markelle Fultz (PG) Washington University

Sixers season ticket sales have skyrocketed since the announcement of the move to #1 and the selection of Markelle Fultz, and fans at the same time have begun to mentally punch playoff tickets for 2017-2018.  

The simultaneous infusion of a talent the caliber of Joel Embiid who will be returning from injury, along with two (2) #1 overall selections Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz into the 2017-2018 lineup - talent that will now be joining the developing young players who were able to gain valuable minutes on the court due to this past season’s injuries - seems almost too good to be true.

It will be coach Brett Brown’s job to convert the player development to date along with the contributions of returning and new players into an on court improvement that results in an inversion of the wins and losses from the team’s 2016-2017 28-54 record.

The successful implementation of the next stage of The Process is going to require players who were #1 option in previous situations to be #2, #3, or #4 options at times.

The successful implementation of the next stage of The Process is going to require that each major contributor display the skill of staying healthy in order to maximize court time.

The successful implementation of the next stage of The Process is going to require that Brett Brown and the Sixers front office successfully manage and optimize the minutes, shots, and skills of each team member.

Fundamentally, the successful implementation of the next stage of The Process requires that the Sixers lineup is in position to take advantage of the matchup problems that it’s unique combination of youth, skills, and size can create for the nearly every competitor.

Sixers Summer League will commence in Utah, July 3, 2017.

Power Back

The signing of LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year $2.8 million contract represents an important decision for the Eagles franchise.  Make no mistakes.  This is one tough, talented running back.  He has the agility to leap defenders running through the hole, and drive back linebackers on the other side of the pile, gaining the difficult yards like few others are capable of doing.

Eagles fans who’ve watched with envy players like Mike Alstott and Jeremy Shockey who employ throwback smashmouth style of offensive football are about to have their day.

It wouldn’t be Philadelphia, however, if there weren’t stipulations and several reasons to contemplate the move by the Eagles front office.

Given that LeGarrette Blount is here for just one season, what type of 2017 should you hope to see?

If Blount rushes for 1,300 yards and 12TD, the likelihood that he will be on the 2018 roster at an affordable rate is low.

If Blount rushes for 650 yards and 9 TD, the likelihood that you as a fan will have been disappointed in the 2017 performance is high.

From Blount’s perspective, joining another team that has the capability to move the chains and create opportunities to score is a wise decision.

Are the short-term rapid-fire acquisitions of Alshon Jeffery and LeGarrette Blount genius, madness, both, or neither?

My vote is that there is at least some genius involved in these decisions.  From a business perspective, Blount at $2.8 million represents a low risk.

Because he is on a one-year deal and playing for a contract, we can apply a discounted percentage to the chances that Blount will step out of line as has reportedly happened at other times in his NFL career.

Eagles-Lions QB Showdown - Written by Mike Gilligan

In previewing the Eagles October 9 showdown with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, slowing QB Matthew Stafford, drafted in 2009 out of Georgia, will be critical.  

Going into this season, he has five (5) consecutive 4000-yard seasons, including one (1) 5000-yard season.

While it is notable that at present, legendary 31-year old WR Calvin Johnson is spending his time Dancing with the Stars rather than dancing in the end zone, the Lions pass game has not stalled.

So far in 2016 Stafford is averaging a career-best 8.2 yards per attempt, according to NFL.com along with an average of 328.3 yards per game.

Stafford’s career passing numbers cement him as one of the most successful QB draft picks in recent NFL history.  

In analyzing the last twenty (20) seasons worth of NFL QB draft selections, there have been two-hundred thirty (230) quarterbacks selected, meaning that the average NFL franchise has applied 7.2 selections toward bolstering its status at QB.  A round-by-round breakdown is shown below in Table 1.

Table 1 - NFL Quarterback Selections by Round

	Selections
ROUND1	50
ROUND2	22
ROUND3	24
ROUND4	25
ROUND5	30
ROUNDS 6-7	79
TOTALS	230

From that list of quarterbacks, there have been two-hundred eight (208) 3000-yard seasons, and forty-five (45) unique 3000-yard passers.  Twenty-Five (25) of those forty-five (45) have been first round picks.

Across Rounds 1-7, the average team has acquired 1.4 3000-yard passers per 20-year period via the draft (see Table 2).  Based on these numbers, the average team spent 5.1 draft picks in order to roster a 3000-yard passer via the draft.

Table 2 - NFL 3000 Yard Passers by Round

	3000 Yard Passers per NFL Team (based on 32 teams)*
ROUND1	0.78125
ROUND2	0.21875
ROUND3	0.09375
ROUND4	0.125
ROUND5	0
ROUND6-7	0.1875
TOTALS	1.40625

*The numbers are calculated using 32 teams across 20 year period.  However the NFL had 30 teams between 1996-2002 prior to expansion.

Of the first-round quarterback selections, the most 3000-yard seasons have been accomplished by the following quarterbacks, between 1996-2015:  Peyton Manning (16), Eli Manning (11), Philip Rivers (10), Ben Roethlisberger (10), Carson Palmer (8), Donovan McNabb (8), Matt Ryan (7), Jay Cutler (7), and Aaron Rodgers (7).

Additionally, there has been a concentration of success arising from first round picks #1-3, accounting for 37% of the drafted 3000-yard passing seasons between 1996-2015 as shown in Table 3 below.

Table 3 - 20-Year Success Rate of QB’s Drafted #1-3 Overall

1st Round	3000 Yard Seasons	Percentage of Drafted 3000 Yard Seasons
#1 Overall	58	27.88%
#2 Overall	10	4.81%
#3 Overall	9	4.33%
Totals 1-3	77	37.02%
TOTAL 3000 Yard Seasons Drafted	208

The tables and statistics show the difficulty of acquiring a QB who can throw for 3000 yards at any point in his career via draft selections.  

If QB sensation Carson Wentz is able to pass for 3000 yards this season, it will go a long ways towards the justification of the draft day investment the Eagles made when they traded with the Cleveland Browns to move up in the draft and select him at #2 overall.

 

Additionally, if Wentz is able to maintain his current pace of 256.3 yards per game, he would eclipse Donovan McNabb’s single-season franchise record in passing yards while also becoming the Eagles first 4000-yard passer in team history.