Eagles-Lions QB Showdown - Written by Mike Gilligan

In previewing the Eagles October 9 showdown with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, slowing QB Matthew Stafford, drafted in 2009 out of Georgia, will be critical.  

Going into this season, he has five (5) consecutive 4000-yard seasons, including one (1) 5000-yard season.

While it is notable that at present, legendary 31-year old WR Calvin Johnson is spending his time Dancing with the Stars rather than dancing in the end zone, the Lions pass game has not stalled.

So far in 2016 Stafford is averaging a career-best 8.2 yards per attempt, according to NFL.com along with an average of 328.3 yards per game.

Stafford’s career passing numbers cement him as one of the most successful QB draft picks in recent NFL history.  

In analyzing the last twenty (20) seasons worth of NFL QB draft selections, there have been two-hundred thirty (230) quarterbacks selected, meaning that the average NFL franchise has applied 7.2 selections toward bolstering its status at QB.  A round-by-round breakdown is shown below in Table 1.

Table 1 - NFL Quarterback Selections by Round

	Selections
ROUND1	50
ROUND2	22
ROUND3	24
ROUND4	25
ROUND5	30
ROUNDS 6-7	79
TOTALS	230

From that list of quarterbacks, there have been two-hundred eight (208) 3000-yard seasons, and forty-five (45) unique 3000-yard passers.  Twenty-Five (25) of those forty-five (45) have been first round picks.

Across Rounds 1-7, the average team has acquired 1.4 3000-yard passers per 20-year period via the draft (see Table 2).  Based on these numbers, the average team spent 5.1 draft picks in order to roster a 3000-yard passer via the draft.

Table 2 - NFL 3000 Yard Passers by Round

	3000 Yard Passers per NFL Team (based on 32 teams)*
ROUND1	0.78125
ROUND2	0.21875
ROUND3	0.09375
ROUND4	0.125
ROUND5	0
ROUND6-7	0.1875
TOTALS	1.40625

*The numbers are calculated using 32 teams across 20 year period.  However the NFL had 30 teams between 1996-2002 prior to expansion.

Of the first-round quarterback selections, the most 3000-yard seasons have been accomplished by the following quarterbacks, between 1996-2015:  Peyton Manning (16), Eli Manning (11), Philip Rivers (10), Ben Roethlisberger (10), Carson Palmer (8), Donovan McNabb (8), Matt Ryan (7), Jay Cutler (7), and Aaron Rodgers (7).

Additionally, there has been a concentration of success arising from first round picks #1-3, accounting for 37% of the drafted 3000-yard passing seasons between 1996-2015 as shown in Table 3 below.

Table 3 - 20-Year Success Rate of QB’s Drafted #1-3 Overall

1st Round	3000 Yard Seasons	Percentage of Drafted 3000 Yard Seasons
#1 Overall	58	27.88%
#2 Overall	10	4.81%
#3 Overall	9	4.33%
Totals 1-3	77	37.02%
TOTAL 3000 Yard Seasons Drafted	208

The tables and statistics show the difficulty of acquiring a QB who can throw for 3000 yards at any point in his career via draft selections.  

If QB sensation Carson Wentz is able to pass for 3000 yards this season, it will go a long ways towards the justification of the draft day investment the Eagles made when they traded with the Cleveland Browns to move up in the draft and select him at #2 overall.

 

Additionally, if Wentz is able to maintain his current pace of 256.3 yards per game, he would eclipse Donovan McNabb’s single-season franchise record in passing yards while also becoming the Eagles first 4000-yard passer in team history.