Eagles-Lions QB Showdown - Written by Mike Gilligan

In previewing the Eagles October 9 showdown with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, slowing QB Matthew Stafford, drafted in 2009 out of Georgia, will be critical.  

Going into this season, he has five (5) consecutive 4000-yard seasons, including one (1) 5000-yard season.

While it is notable that at present, legendary 31-year old WR Calvin Johnson is spending his time Dancing with the Stars rather than dancing in the end zone, the Lions pass game has not stalled.

So far in 2016 Stafford is averaging a career-best 8.2 yards per attempt, according to NFL.com along with an average of 328.3 yards per game.

Stafford’s career passing numbers cement him as one of the most successful QB draft picks in recent NFL history.  

In analyzing the last twenty (20) seasons worth of NFL QB draft selections, there have been two-hundred thirty (230) quarterbacks selected, meaning that the average NFL franchise has applied 7.2 selections toward bolstering its status at QB.  A round-by-round breakdown is shown below in Table 1.

Table 1 - NFL Quarterback Selections by Round

	Selections
ROUND1	50
ROUND2	22
ROUND3	24
ROUND4	25
ROUND5	30
ROUNDS 6-7	79
TOTALS	230

From that list of quarterbacks, there have been two-hundred eight (208) 3000-yard seasons, and forty-five (45) unique 3000-yard passers.  Twenty-Five (25) of those forty-five (45) have been first round picks.

Across Rounds 1-7, the average team has acquired 1.4 3000-yard passers per 20-year period via the draft (see Table 2).  Based on these numbers, the average team spent 5.1 draft picks in order to roster a 3000-yard passer via the draft.

Table 2 - NFL 3000 Yard Passers by Round

	3000 Yard Passers per NFL Team (based on 32 teams)*
ROUND1	0.78125
ROUND2	0.21875
ROUND3	0.09375
ROUND4	0.125
ROUND5	0
ROUND6-7	0.1875
TOTALS	1.40625

*The numbers are calculated using 32 teams across 20 year period.  However the NFL had 30 teams between 1996-2002 prior to expansion.

Of the first-round quarterback selections, the most 3000-yard seasons have been accomplished by the following quarterbacks, between 1996-2015:  Peyton Manning (16), Eli Manning (11), Philip Rivers (10), Ben Roethlisberger (10), Carson Palmer (8), Donovan McNabb (8), Matt Ryan (7), Jay Cutler (7), and Aaron Rodgers (7).

Additionally, there has been a concentration of success arising from first round picks #1-3, accounting for 37% of the drafted 3000-yard passing seasons between 1996-2015 as shown in Table 3 below.

Table 3 - 20-Year Success Rate of QB’s Drafted #1-3 Overall

1st Round	3000 Yard Seasons	Percentage of Drafted 3000 Yard Seasons
#1 Overall	58	27.88%
#2 Overall	10	4.81%
#3 Overall	9	4.33%
Totals 1-3	77	37.02%
TOTAL 3000 Yard Seasons Drafted	208

The tables and statistics show the difficulty of acquiring a QB who can throw for 3000 yards at any point in his career via draft selections.  

If QB sensation Carson Wentz is able to pass for 3000 yards this season, it will go a long ways towards the justification of the draft day investment the Eagles made when they traded with the Cleveland Browns to move up in the draft and select him at #2 overall.

 

Additionally, if Wentz is able to maintain his current pace of 256.3 yards per game, he would eclipse Donovan McNabb’s single-season franchise record in passing yards while also becoming the Eagles first 4000-yard passer in team history.

Unknown Fighter - Written by Mike Gilligan

When the Eagles made the announcement that they would be poaching Doug Pederson from Andy Reid’s staff in Kansas City, it really made me stop and contemplate.

My first reaction was one of respect for Jeffrey Lurie.  Regardless of the outcome, this move sends a clear message to the members of the Eagles organization.  That message is that Lurie is watching.  And whether you like or dislike Lurie - that he respects and wants to repay the efforts of the team players who contributed to his success, both in the spotlight, and behind the scenes.

Pederson, a career backup, essentially saw action for just one season in his NFL career.  For Philadelphia fans, this ranked as a season to forget.  His opportunity arrived at a time when the team was disheveled.  As the frontman for one of the worst teams in Eagles history, Pederson bore the brunt of criticism from the fans and the media.  Although the team was lacking in most areas - Pederson did not perform well on the football field - leading the team to a 2-7 record and a 53% completion rate in 1999.

Fast forward to 2016, and Jeffrey Lurie has brought back this player to lead his franchise.  

As a fan, it is difficult to dissociate Pederson with his time in the limelight in this city.  To be sure, skepticism is the overriding sentiment of the fan base and the media.

In any other city, Pederson would not have this hurdle to overcome.

And that is where this becomes so interesting.  

Does Jeffrey Lurie know something about Pederson that we don’t?

Was Pederson a huge hidden key to the success of Andy Reid’s tenure here?

Jeffrey Lurie has sent the entire franchise a message:  Jeffrey Lurie remembers and repays the contribution of the team players who have built his organization.

If his players correctly interpret the message being sent by the fact that Doug Pederson is standing before them an NFL head coach, then 2016 is going to be interesting.

 

Put Players In Position - Written by Mike Gilligan July 25, 2015

Wow.  This guy really comes right out at you.  Andy Reid, the greatest coach in Philadelphia Sports history had made his impression on Jeff Lurie.   One of the key reasons cited for the hiring of Reid was his attention to detail, and his book-length strategy and analysis on the long snapper became the stuff of legends.  

Although Chip Kelly’s rebuild process is grabbing headlines and generating excitement locally and nationally, we hope as fans that Chip and the Eagles Brass make use of the history that’s been built here as part of the process of shaping the Super Bowl Champion version of the Eagles.

Looking back, Andy came to town as an unpopular, relatively unheralded selection.  We probably learned more about Andy at the time of hiring than we would over the next 14 years. His choices for assistants were not high profile, well known types. Andy had kept tabs on a group of people whom he respected, and hated to face weekly.  When given the opportunity, Andy already knew which direction he would go for these key positions in the organization.

As fans, our concerns were allayed some after reading that the likes of Brett Favre had endorsed Andy as one of the keys behind Mike Holmgren’s success in Green Bay.  

Despite the unprecedented levels of success achieved by Reid’s Eagles teams, he was surprisingly unpopular in town.  

Why?

Andy didn’t let out much about his strategy, especially when it came to week-to-week.  His focus was on his players not antagonizing the opposition, and that the organization as a whole focused 100% of its energy on preparation for the next opponent only.   As coach, he demanded consistency from the operation.

While accepted initially - over time, that level of consistent opacity in the media began to wear on the fan base.

On some level, we probably were spoiled by the success.  

On other levels, we became frustrated with the repeated mistakes.  Two-minute drills that repeatedly failed, timeouts used at inopportune times, passes thrown behind receivers when the offense is designed for Yards After Catch, and refusal to draft and develop Wide Receivers and Linebackers.  

Ultimately, Reid brought to Philadelphia a plan to build a winner around good guys.  

Reid was going to draft and develop these players because they had the right attitude.  But the pressure of winning the title led Reid to draw at least one incorrect conclusion that sealed his fate.

The Eagles began to recruit high-profile free agent players with disregard for their attitude and contract requests.  

Andy Reid had gotten away from who he was.  Gotten away from what made him a success.  So far away that he lost the team, the city, the fans, and ultimately his job as coach.

It’s not easy to find a coach the caliber of Andy Reid.  But I believe in Chip Kelly.  Chip Kelly can be Andy Reid 2.0 here.  Chip needs to put the process before the results and stay on the path that he designed.  Chip needs to stay true to his plan.  And when the time is right, Chip needs to win.

“My job is to put players in position to win” was one of Andy’s favorite quotes.  Was the gap between an Eagles NFC championship and a Super Bowl championship just a few words in Reid’s understanding of the job description?

If Six Was Nine - Written by Mike Gilligan August 23, 2015

Ten and Six.  In NFL history only twenty-two (22) seasons where a team has won ten games or more resulted in said team missing the playoffs.  

When Ray Rhodes took over the helm of the Eagles back in 1995, he coached the team to back-to-back 10-win seasons.  

Rich Kotite?  Even better.   Kotite led the Eagles to 10-6 record in his first season followed by 11-5 campaign in 1992.  Search for Rich Kotite and he bubbles to the top of your favorite search engine as one of the worst coaches of all time, showing up on multiple lists.

Looking back, it’s difficult to imagine that four seasons of Rhodes' and Kotite’s tenures amounted to 41-23.   

Even more surprising is the fact that Rich Kotite had a 0.563 cumulative win percentage during his run in Philadelphia.  Would you consider Kotite’s run as head coach a successful one?

When Chip Kelly was brought in to succeed Andy Reid, I admit to being a huge skeptic of the selection. Personally I was hoping for a coach with NFL head coaching experience. Given the state of the franchise handed to Kelly, this team was not supposed to contend, at least not for the foreseeable future.

But 2013 was the year of Chip.  Watching the Eagles offense was like being in the front row of a rock and roll concert.  The team had Rhythm.   And it kept opposing defenses off balance in a way that astounded a lot of experts.

This offense was about more than football.  It gave you a sense that anything was possible.  Not just on the field but in life.

The excitement generated by the offense raised expectations to unreasonable levels.

Sometimes in life success arrives before we are ready for it.  Success has a way of masking underlying problems.  Last year many suggested Super Bowl possibilities despite the fact that the Eagles 2013 pass defense was ranked #32 in the NFL.  

What happens to the plan when success comes knocking at the door before you expected it to?   

Looking back at 2014, it’s hard to imagine that the Eagles had a 10-6 season.    The defense did not make huge strides.  And while the offensive numbers still looked good on paper, something was missing.   

The Rhythm of the offense was not the same.  As a spectator, you didn’t walk away from the early season wins with a lot of confidence.   Still, the level of vitriol aimed at Kelly as the season wore on was disappointing to me.   If a player showed the level of upside Kelly and his system had shown in 2013, would the media attempt to run him out of town?

Proving the effectiveness of a good plan and system requires time.  Especially in the early stages of a plan’s development, it’s important to focus more on the plan’s execution than the results. Repetition of the components of the well-designed plan will produce results over time.

I certainly don’t agree with every one of the moves being made this offseason.  However I’m also not shocked at the overhaul.  Last year’s team was not a 10-win caliber team.   

The timing of the recent personnel moves is certainly unorthodox.  Anything less wouldn’t be Chip.  Are these moves the original plan, or part of a new plan?

As is the case with a pitcher in baseball, the win and loss record is not always an accurate indicator of the quality of the pitcher’s performance.   Would you look at Chip’s rebuild and corresponding moves differently if the 2013 and 2014 Eagles had not finished 10-6?

What if Six was Nine?